July 18, 2024

President Trump’s path to victory is steep

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I believe that Donald Trump can still draw a crowd. He’ll fill up arenas at rallys in the future. It’ll just be smaller arenas. Arenas like Scheels where he’s filled them up before. But he’ll fill them up nonetheless.

The difference however is that the days of filling 19,000 seat venues is over. Trump now knows that. Oklahoma was a disaster. If anyone understands imagery, it’s Donald Trump. His whole life he’s been proving it. From golden escalators to self-named towers, he’s always been a show. And Saturday night in Oklahoma, the show failed.

It’s because he’s made too many enemies. He’s always had them but now the number and their passion have grown. And those enemies have learned how to fight back. They use the very imagery he has to embarrass him. Whether it’s young voters with TikTok or their parents with money, it’s stronger than ever before.

If you don’t believe me just look at The Lincoln Project. The content they run and the way they run it has to be driving him nuts. And the fact that they are Republicans is even more insulting. Hell, one of their leaders is married to a key Trump staffer.

So how do you win with all this hate. That’s right, it’s hate. It goes way beyond dislike. I’m not sure he can win. His path to victory has to go through Michigan and Pennsylvania. Two states that he won in the last election. Minnesota and Wisconsin are lost. And most likely Arizona.

So, hope has to lie in a place where they make cars and another with a bell. The problem is he’s behind in both. So much so in Michigan that most campaigns would write it off. And in Pennsylvania the difference seems to grow.

I know what you’re going to say. That polls don’t mean a thing. If they did, Trump wouldn’t be President today. The problem with that argument is that the polls in 2016 were right. Nationally, Hillary Clinton was way ahead. In fact, she won by three million votes. And in those key states we just talked about, the polls all showed the race within the margin of error. And let’s not forget that Trump believes in polls. He has quoted them many times.

But there are four months left in this race. A lot can happen in between now and then. One of the candidates could gas citizens just to wave around a Bible for example. Or he could promise a million people have requested tickets to his rally only to have six thousand show up.

Or maybe he’s just tired. Too tired to tie a tie and too tired to continue a lie.

Well, probably not.

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